The next RBA decision on 16 June 2026 arrives in a climate of stubborn inflation and cautious markets. Here’s what the official schedule, the data, and the forecasters actually say — and what it means for Australian borrowers and savers.

4 related posts

RBA meetings per year: 8 (since 2024) · Next scheduled meeting: 16 June 2026 · 2026 meeting dates: 2-3 Feb, 16-17 Mar, 4-5 May, 15-16 Jun, 10-11 Aug, 28-29 Sep, 9-10 Nov, 7-8 Dec

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • Whether the RBA will raise or cut rates at any specific meeting in 2026 (Finder)
  • Exact timing of the next rate cut (Finder)
  • Whether the RBA will adjust forward guidance at the June meeting (Finder)
3Timeline signal
  • Full 2026 meeting dates: 2-3 Feb, 16-17 Mar, 4-5 May, 15-16 Jun, 10-11 Aug, 28-29 Sep, 9-10 Nov, 7-8 Dec (Reserve Bank of Australia)
  • Minutes released two weeks after each meeting (The Adviser)
4What’s next
  • ASX Rate Tracker shows no change expected at June meeting (ASX)
  • Finder panel expects first cut in 2027 (Finder)
  • RBA May statement indicates neutral stance (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Key RBA meeting details are summarized below.

Latest meeting 4–5 May 2026
Next meeting 15–16 June 2026 (decision 16 June)
Meetings per year 8
Decision time 2:30 PM AEST
Minutes release Two weeks after each meeting
Statement on Monetary Policy Feb, May, Aug, Nov 2026

What date is the next interest rate decision?

When is the next RBA meeting in 2025?

The 2025 calendar has already concluded. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its final 2025 Monetary Policy Board meeting on 1–2 December 2025 (Reserve Bank of Australia). The cash rate remained at 4.35% after that decision.

When is the next RBA meeting in 2026?

The next scheduled meeting is the 15–16 June 2026 board meeting, with the rate decision announced on Tuesday 16 June at 2:30 PM AEST (Reserve Bank of Australia). This follows the 4–5 May meeting, which kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% (Reserve Bank of Australia).

Bottom line: The RBA’s next decision date is 16 June 2026. For borrowers, the immediate question is whether the board pivots from its current hold — and the data so far says no.
The upshot

Australian mortgage holders face another 2.5 months of uncertainty at 4.35%. The RBA’s own forecasts suggest inflation won’t hit the target band until late 2027 — meaning any cut this year would be a surprise.

How many RBA meetings are there in a year?

What are the 2026 RBA meeting dates?

Since 2024, the RBA has held eight two-day meetings per year, reduced from 11 under the old schedule (The Adviser). The full 2026 calendar is:

  • 2–3 February 2026
  • 16–17 March 2026
  • 4–5 May 2026
  • 15–16 June 2026
  • 10–11 August 2026
  • 28–29 September 2026
  • 9–10 November 2026
  • 7–8 December 2026

All dates are sourced from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official board meeting schedule (Reserve Bank of Australia). Minutes are released 14 days after each meeting, and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy accompanies the February, May, August, and November meetings.

The implication: eight windows for rate change in 2026. The market sees only one or two as live.

Will RBA increase rates in 2026?

What is the RBA rate forecast for 2026?

The cash rate has been at 4.35% since November 2024 (Reserve Bank of Australia). In its May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA noted that “the Board expects it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range” (Reserve Bank of Australia). No rate increase is flagged in the central bank’s forward guidance.

Market pricing via the ASX RBA Rate Tracker implies a 95% probability that the cash rate stays at 4.35% through the June meeting (ASX). A hike is not priced in for any 2026 meeting.

The pattern: the RBA is comfortable holding, and markets agree. An increase would require a significant inflation upside surprise — currently not on the horizon.

What to watch

The Consumer Price Index release on 29 April 2026 (March quarter) and the May Statement on Monetary Policy will be the two key data points that could shift the board’s stance before June.

When can we expect the next interest rate cut?

Will rates drop to 3% again?

The RBA has not signaled an imminent cut. In its February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, the board stressed that it “remains data-dependent and will not hesitate to adjust policy” (Reserve Bank of Australia). The median forecast among economists polled by Finder is for the first cut in the first half of 2027 (Finder).

A return to 3.0% — the level last seen in early 2023 — would require underlying inflation to fall to the midpoint of the 2–3% target for several consecutive quarters. The RBA’s own forecasts see trimmed mean inflation still at 2.8% by end of 2026 (Reserve Bank of Australia).

The trade-off: a cut may come, but not in 2026. Borrowers should plan for rates above 4% until at least early 2027.

What is the interest rate forecast for RBA 2026?

What is the RBA cash rate prediction?

The RBA’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement projected inflation to return to the 2–3% target by late 2027 (Reserve Bank of Australia). The cash rate is not explicitly forecast, but the board’s language implies a prolonged hold. The ASX RBA Rate Tracker shows no more than a 15% probability of a cut at any meeting through December 2026 (ASX).

For context, the RBA’s own staff model suggests that if inflation proves more persistent, a modest further tightening may be required. But that is a tail risk. The base case: 4.35% through 2026.

Why this matters: Anyone locking in a fixed-rate home loan faces a choice — fix at today’s rates in the 6% range, or stay variable expecting a cut that may not come this year.

2026 RBA meeting timeline

Meeting dates Event
2–3 February 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
16–17 March 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
4–5 May 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
15–16 June 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
10–11 August 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
28–29 September 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
9–10 November 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting
7–8 December 2026 Monetary Policy Board Meeting

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (official board meeting schedule)

What we know — and what remains unclear

Confirmed facts

  • 2026 meeting dates from RBA official calendar (Reserve Bank of Australia)
  • Decision announcement time: 2:30 PM AEST (The Adviser)
  • Minutes released two weeks after each meeting (The Adviser)
  • Cash rate unchanged at 4.35% since November 2024 (Reserve Bank of Australia)

What’s unclear

  • Whether the RBA will raise or cut rates at any specific meeting
  • Exact timing of the next rate cut — market consensus points to 2027, but no guarantee (Finder)
  • Impact of overseas rate moves (Fed, ECB) on RBA thinking
  • Whether the RBA will adjust forward guidance at the June meeting

What policymakers and experts are saying

The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range. It remains vigilant to upside risks.

— Reserve Bank of Australia, May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy (Reserve Bank of Australia)

The majority of experts surveyed believe the RBA will hold rates through 2026 and deliver the first cut early in 2027, assuming inflation continues to moderate.

— Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, May 2026 (Finder)

A third perspective comes from Mozo, the financial comparison site, whose analysis notes that the gap between market pricing and RBA rhetoric has narrowed — both sides now see no movement in 2026.

For Australian households, the consequence is clear: the next 12 months of mortgage repayments are likely to be the same as the last 18. Anyone hoping for relief at the June meeting should adjust expectations accordingly.

Additional sources

loanfin.com.au, craggle.com.au, rba.gov.au, responsiblebusiness.org

For those tracking monetary policy closely, the full 2026 RBA meeting schedule provides all confirmed dates and times for each decision.

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Frequently asked questions

What time is the next RBA meeting?

The monetary policy decision is announced at 2:30 PM AEST on the second day of the meeting (the Tuesday). For the June meeting, that is Tuesday 16 June 2026, 2:30 PM AEST (The Adviser).

How long does an RBA meeting last?

Each Monetary Policy Board meeting is a two-day meeting, starting on Monday and concluding with the decision on Tuesday (Reserve Bank of Australia).

What happens after an RBA meeting?

The board releases a statement at 2:30 PM, followed by a press conference with Governor Michele Bullock at 3:30 PM. Minutes are published two weeks later (The Adviser).

Can the RBA meet outside the scheduled calendar?

Yes, the RBA can convene an unscheduled meeting in exceptional circumstances, but it has not done so since the pandemic emergency meeting in March 2020 (Reserve Bank of Australia).

How does the RBA decision affect home loans?

Variable-rate home loans typically pass on any RBA cash rate change within one billing cycle. Fixed-rate loans are not directly affected until they expire (Mozo).

Where can I watch the RBA decision announcement?

The press conference is streamed live on the RBA’s website at 3:30 PM AEST on decision day. The written statement is posted at 2:30 PM (Reserve Bank of Australia).

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